Rolling Quantitative Momentum Strategy – Nifty 500 Stocks

Momentum is the speed with which a particular object moves. In the financial world, momentum refers to the speed with which the price of the stock or any other asset moves. A stronger momentum indicates a faster movement in the price of the assets in one particular direction. Momentum is generally measured as the ‘rate of change’ (ROC) of the price over ‘X’ periods of time. In this article, we discuss ‘Rolling Quantitative Momentum’, a quantitative approach to investment & portfolio management using momentum in the stock price and re-balance (rolling) the portfolio at regular frequencies.

The book ‘Quantitative Momentum’ by Wesley Gray & Jack Vogel is the basis of many of the ideas & analysis presented here. While the book analysis has used US stock market data, I’ve adapted some of these ideas to Indian stock market data – Nifty 500 stocks.

In our Rolling Quantitative Momentum strategy, we design our investment portfolio using stocks with strong momentum and then further refine it using quality of the momentum of stocks, holding period and portfolio size & investment size.

For the purpose of our study, we will use NSE’s Nifty 500 stock universe as they represent 97% of the turnover of the market.

Measuring Momentum

How can we measure the momentum of stocks?. Momentum is generally measured as the rate of change (ROC) of the stock price over ‘X’ periods. In many cases, traders use MACD, moving averages, stochastics, RSI etc. In our study, we will use ROC for measuring the momentum. Now, momentum is usually measured over short periods of few days, intermediate periods of few months or long-term periods of few years.

Wesley Gray & Jack Vogel found that an intermediate period of 6-12 months is ideal for measuring the momentum which gives the stock enough room for further upside price action and has a better signal to noise ratio. Shorter periods of momentum measurement tend to have too much noise to signal ratio while long-term periods of momentum measurement doesn’t project further momentum in the future as it tends to taper off after a long period. Therefore, we will use 12 months of historical data to measure the momentum.

Momentum Score

Monthly momentum values are calculated as cumulative returns over the past 12 months.

The monthly momentum is calculated in 3 steps

1) We calculate gross monthly returns by adding one to the percent monthly return. For example, from a monthly return of 5% (0.05), we get the gross monthly return value of 1.05 (0.05 + 1) while from a monthly return of -5% (-0.05) we get a gross monthly return of 0.95 (0.05 + 1.0).

2) We multiply all the gross monthly returns of past 12 months.

3) We subtract one from the resultant value from step 2 to get the net 12-month momentum score.

To illustrate this calculation, let’s say AUROPHARMA (Aurobindo Pharma) stock has moved by 2%, -5%, 4.3%, 0.5%, 10.1%, -2.2%, 6%, 3.6%, 0.1%, 0.4%, 1.4%, -2.6% over the past 12 months. Then, we add 1 to monthly return, multiply all of them & subtract one from it to get the momentum score.

Momentum Score = (1.02)*(0.95)*(1.043)*(1.05)*(1.101)*(0.978)*(0.94)*(1.036)*(1.001)*(1.004)*(1.014)*(0.974) - 1

This will give a momentum score of 10.45% (0.1045) to the Aurobindo Pharma Stock. We will now use the momentum score to build the portfolio.

Construction of the Quantitative Momentum Portfolio

We construct the portfolio with stocks showing strong positive momentum. For this study, we use NSE Nifty 500 stock historical data from the year 2000 to 2017 June.

First, we calculate monthly momentum scores for all the nifty 500 stocks and sort them by score & pick the top 10 stocks.

Here is a snapshot of Top 10 momentum stocks as of January 2017

SymbolOpenHighLowCloseMomentumScore
SHILPI225.8229.55224.25226.45292.12
VEDL261261.8252.2253.1252.75
SUDARSCHEM339339.25331335.95250.50
INDIANB271.9279265.55272.25197.70
GNFC248.2252242243.1194.67
MANAPPURAM81.281.278.578.95176.05
HINDALCO191.95193.2189.2189.95169.43
ESCORTS371372362.55363.6169.03
SWANENERGY172.6177.85170171.05161.74
DALMIABHA1887188718251839151.76

We will construct the investment portfolio with 3 different variations

  • Holding period – 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months
  • Portfolio Size – 10 stocks, 20 stocks & 30 stocks
  • Position Size – fixed investment vs cumulative investment.

Overlapping & Rolling Quantitative Momentum Portfolios

In this strategy, we invest in the momentum portfolios in an overlapping fashion and then rebalance (or rollover) the portfolio after the holding period is over. The overlapping investment in portfolios is best illustrated in Figure 1.

We divide our investment into 3 tranches & invest in the portfolios one at a time with a time gap. For example, in a 3 month holding period strategy, the first tranche is invested in January, second trance in February & the third tranche in March.

By the time we reach April, the holding period of first tranche investment is over and freed up for investing in April. And so on & so forth. As a result, we are able to capture the momentum of various stocks at various times and always stay invested.

Fig 1. Overlapping Investment & Rollover of Portfolio

Fig 1. Overlapping Investment & Rollover of Portfolio

 

Our overall portfolio investment is Rs. 7,50,000 & divided into 3 tranches of  Rs. 250,000  in the case of where the holding period of the investment portfolio is greater than 1 month.

Momentum portfolio with various holding periods

In this particular study,

  1.  We use historical data from the years 2002 to 2017 – 15 years.
  2. Portfolio investment size is Rs 7,50,000. Profits are not reinvested.
  3. For 1 month holding period, there is no overlapping of portfolios and therefore the whole 750,000 is invested in one portfolio and is rebalanced every month.
  4. The portfolio is rebalanced at the end of the period with top 10 new momentum stocks.
  5. We use equal-weight portfolio.

Here is the performance of momentum portfolios for 1 month, 3 months, 6 months & 12 months holding period from 2002-2017.

Fig 2. - Momentum Portfolio - Returns from Various Holding Periods

Fig 2. – Momentum Portfolio – Returns from Various Holding Periods

 

Equity Curve: Momentum Portfolio - Returns from Various Holding Periods

Equity Curve: Momentum Portfolio – Returns from Various Holding Periods

 

As one can see from results in Fig 2., the longer holding periods of momentum portfolio results in much better returns, better win-loss ratio, and lower maximum drawdowns and is also able to capture the momentum better than the shorter periods.

Furthermore, there are other advantages of holding the portfolio for longer periods. For example, one can use a 12 month holding period to get the long-term capital gains tax exemption. Since there are fewer rollovers (or rebalancing) of portfolios during longer holding periods, there are fewer transactions leading to lower brokerage charges. There is also higher possibility of receiving more dividends and bonus shares.

Note:

Overall, these results are in contrast to the results obtained by Gray and Vogel, where their analysis shows that frequent rebalancing of portfolio yields better returns than holding for long periods. This may be due to three factors – while they use value-weighted portfolio investing, I use equal-weighted portfolio investing and while their study comprises of almost 90 years of data, mine comprises of just 15 years of data and finally, the 15-year data from Indian markets mostly corresponds to a structurally bullish market barring the 2008 bearish market phase.

Momentum portfolio with Different Portfolio Size

In this particular study,

  1. We compare two portfolios containing 10,20 and 30 stocks each.
  2. We study portfolios with 3-month (short-term) and 12-month (long-term) holding periods.
  3. Investment size is 7,50,000 and profits are not reinvested.
  4. We use equal-weight portfolio.

Here are the results for portfolios with size of 10, 20 and 30 stocks

Fig 3. - Momentum Portfolio - Returns from Different Portfolio Sizes

Fig 3. – Momentum Portfolio – Returns from Different Portfolio Sizes

Equity Curve: Momentum Portfolio - Returns from Different Portfolio Sizes

Equity Curve: Momentum Portfolio – Returns from Different Portfolio Sizes

It’s clear from the results that increase in the number of stocks in the portfolio yields lower returns, though they show marginally lower drawdowns. The lower returns are mainly due to dilution of momentum as a result of picking stocks with relatively lower momentum. The inclusion of more stocks in the portfolio may increase the diversity but it comes at the cost of returns. Therefore, we can conclude that a concentrated portfolio with fewer high momentum stocks shows better performance than a larger but more diverse portfolio.

Momentum portfolio with Fixed vs Cumulative Investment

In this study,

  1. The performance of portfolios with fixed investment, where profits are not reinvested is compared with variable cumulative investment, where profits are reinvested. Profits reinvested are exclusive of dividends.
  2. The same number of stocks (i.e 10) is same in both portfolios.
  3. We chose Portfolios with 3-month (short-term) and 12-month (long-term) holding periods.
  4. We use equal-weighted portfolio.
  5. The 3 investment tranche become independent of each other.

Here are the results of fixed investment & cumulative investment portfolios

Fig 4. - Momentum Portfolio - Returns from Fixed & Cumulative Investment Size Portfolios

Fig 4. – Momentum Portfolio – Returns from Fixed & Cumulative Investment Size Portfolios

 

Equity Curve: Momentum Portfolio - Returns from Fixed Vs Cumulative Investment

Equity Curve: Momentum Portfolio – Returns from Fixed Vs Cumulative Investment

Momentum portfolio with fixed investment of 750,000 held for 3 month periods shows a profit of Rs 69 lakh with a CAGR of  17.25.  And a cumulative investment, in which the profits are plowed back into the portfolio, shows a profit of Rs 50 crores with a CAGR of 54.36.  The same portfolio strategy held for 12 month periods with fixed investment shows a profit of Rs 91 lakh with a CAGR of 19.52, while with the cumulative investment it shows a profit of Rs 45 crores with a CAGR of 53.37.

It is clear that when we reinvest the profits back into the portfolio, the returns are much higher. But the cumulative investment strategies suffer from huge maximum drawdowns because the capital & profits are totally invested and this can be devastating in a bear market.

Conclusion

We can draw three main conclusions from this study

  1. Quantitative momentum portfolios held for longer periods show better returns and lower drawdowns, at least in the Indian market context.
  2. Concentrated portfolios with fewer stocks do better than diverse portfolios with a large number of stocks. This is because of dilution of the momentum in the larger basket size portfolios.
  3. If profits are reinvested back into the portfolio, it shows almost exponential returns. But we should be aware of the pitfalls of larger draw-downs in these kinds of portfolios. In the case of portfolios with fixed investment, the returns are relatively languid but drawdowns are much lower.

Two main takeaways from this study are – hold momentum portfolios for longer periods (6-12 months) and keep the portfolio concentrated.  On the point of reinvesting profits back into the portfolio, an investor should take the call depending on their risk appetite. If the investor wants lower risk strategy, stick to fixed investment. And if an investor wants huge returns even with large drawdowns, then he should reinvest the profits.

In the next article, I will present data & results on the importance of stocks with quality momentum in the portfolio and whether avoiding stocks with bad momentum is a good thing or not for the portfolio returns.

 

Update:

I wanted to see the performance of these quantitative momentum portfolios post this study and therefor I began creating 3 momentum portfolios of 10, 20 & 30 stocks at the end of every month & live tracking their performance by bench-marking it against the performance of Nifty50 & Nifty500 indices.

You can track them here – June, July, August momentum portfolios

The aim is to see how they perform over one-year from now & whether their performance will reflect the past performance as shown in this study.

Note:

Many people who have read this article asked me if I have done Index balancing as part of the study because many stocks exited & entered the Nifty 500 index through the course of last 15 years.

To answer the question, no, I haven’t done the index re-balancing. I have used the same Nifty 500 index that was available during this study through out the back-test. So the question arises that if the returns presented are inflated due to the survivor-ship bias. Honestly, I don’t know. Though I can surmise that if there was any effect of survivor-ship bias on these portfolios it would have been marginal as the best performing portfolio size was of 10 stocks. So, please take these returns from the study with caution.

Posted in Fundamental Analysis, Stocks, Technical Analysis and tagged , , , , , .

42 Comments

  1. Hi Raghunathji,

    Thanks for sharing such promising and informative strategy on momentum investing. It truly helps to person like me to understand the investing better.

    – I have a couple of queries. How does one gather historical price data. Finding manually 12 month historical data for 500 stocks will be tedious and error prone.
    – For 6 and 12 months also we have overlapping investments? If yes, in how many tranches?

    Thanks a lot again for the informative article

    • Yes, it’s a tedious job to collect. I maintain my own database of historical data of all stocks of NSE. Need programming knowledge to do it.

      For 6 months& 12 months also we have overlapping investments. The gap for 6 months tranches will be 2 months while for 12 months tranches will be 4 months.

      I’m going to generate a table of momentum stocks sorted by momentum score at the end of month and display on the site.

      • Thanks for the quick reply.

        Regarding data – is historical data available (paid or otherwise)? And for programming – do you use Yahoo API or any API is available from NSE?

        I tried to search the net but could not find one…

        • Quandl & Viratech provide premium data adjusted for stock split/bonus etc. You can get them from them if you want.

          I don’t use any APIs. I get data from NSE bhavcopy & put it in my database & adjust for splits/bonus/rights etc..

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  4. hi Raghunath, thanks for this informative post. Have always been interested in momentum investing.

    Was just curious why have you multiplied month on month returns. Would we not arrive at the same result at just by looking 12mth return (point to point).

    Also for 12m holding period do you run 12 portfolios simultaneously (i.e. rebal monthly with overlapping)?

    regards,
    Vivek

    • Yes, I realized later, we can do that way also. I was following the formula in that book that’s all.

      Regarding 12 month holding period, rebalancing is every 12 months & overlapping portfolios will be 4 months apart.

      • Thanks for the quick response. Just to share I did a similar analysis (2008-2016) but realised the survivorship bias was resulting in overstating the results in a meaningful way. You are using the current NSE500?

        CAGR fell by 15-20% if I just went with the NSE500 at the time of starting the backtest ignoring any additions thereafter. I then narrowed down the analysis to top 500 names via MCap instead of a defined universe and think that makes the returns more realistic.

        • Hi Vivek,
          So you mean to say that the cumulative CAGR was more like 40%. Kindly confirm as it is a big number as well.
          Further how did you get the data? Will Bloomberg do?

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  6. good analysis,

    one question . if a stock is already in tranche 1 and is still having momentum rank then will it also be part of tranche 2?
    Please also post details on the avoidance of the bad momentum stocks and their pros and cons.

  7. Dear Sir,
    Excellent work on the website! Suppose I want to enter into this momentum portfolio with 10 stocks & 12 months holding strategy. Is it true that I have to enter 10 stocks shown on this webpage on 1st of every month with 12 tranches of 12 months? Also let me know is capital of 1 lac is sufficient for one month? Also let me know if I exit these portfolios after 12 months , LTCG tax exempt is applied to this exited portfolio?

    • With 12 months holding strategy, it has to be done in 3 tranches with a gap of 4 months between them. Please read carefully.

      You can enter 10 stocks at the beginning of let’s say September and next one will be Jan & then another one in May. And then you roll-over September tranche next year September same time.4 And so & so forth.

      Please be aware of drawdowns of his strategy when entering at peak market levels.

      • Is there role of Sharpe ratio in such type of portfolios. Suppose I select top 10 stocks having highest Sharpe ratio and went on re-balancing at monthly or at regular interval , will it give good returns?

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  14. Hi Raghunath,

    Still awaiting the 2nd part of the article about ‘In the next article, I will present data & results on the importance of stocks with quality momentum in the portfolio and whether avoiding stocks with bad momentum is a good thing or not for the portfolio returns.’

  15. Hi,

    Thanks for your very awesome post. How to get the data for all Nifty 500 securities?
    I tried google sheets, but I am getting #REF error in between because of Refreshing issue.
    Please help. Thanks again 🙂

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  17. Very nice strategy, Thanks a lot for sharing valuable information. I am almost done with my program. Just took 4 hours. Currently executing it on nifty 500 stocks. I observed my momentum score is coming as bit low compare to yours. Can you please tell me how did you calculate the return per month? By taking the open of 1st day of month and close of last day of month ? or low/high which combination? Thank you 🙂

  18. Dear Raghunath, you have mentioned momentum in any direction.. can we do short with this portfolio also or how will one identify that based on what criteria

  19. Hi, Very Good Article and lot of learning… However have few questions.

    Say for example, If I have 30 lakhs for investment.. So If I decide to do it in 3 Tranches, then I should invest 10 lks in 10 stocks in first month and 2nd 10 lks in 2nd month and 3rd lakhs in 3rd month right.. To my understanding, whatever i have invested in first month, i should sell those with profit and re-invest again on the 4th month correct?

    Also, if any stock is in any momentum stock, should i continue to invest again in 2nd/3rd month or i should focus only on the newly identified momentum stocks….

    One last question.. Do we get the list by the end of the month which can we look for investment in the next month?

    Thanks..

    • If a stock repeats in the momentum list, you are basically allocating more to it. Holding period of the portfolio is up to individual investors. In your example I assume your holding period is 3 months. Then hold 1 tranche for 3 months & sell it at the end & re-invest at the start of 4th month. Look at the first figure for clear understanding.

  20. Dear Sir,
    Is Momentum the only parameters on which the stocks are selected? Is there any stoploss kind of system in this strategy or the only exit is after 12 months holding period ?

    Thanks.

    • According to the system, no SL, it needs to be held for all the way till the holding period (short term 1 month, long-term 12 month). It is up to individual investors regarding the SL.

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